Gold price holds high after low yields

The international raw materials market shows a day of relative stability for precious metals. The price of gold is quoted in the area of USD 4,160 per ounce, holding much of the progress made in the previous session, when it scored a rise of 0.6%. This behaviour occurs in a context marked by the decline in US Treasury bond returns and a slight decrease in global inflationary pressures.

At the spot crossings, the gold ounce (XAU / USD) is listed with a slight variation of 0.1% to be located in USD 4,160.49, while the futures contracts on metal record a marginal advance of 0.03%, to USD 4,188.22. Meanwhile, other assets in the sector are listed with nuances: silver (XAG / USD) operates without significant changes in USD 61.36 the ounce, platinum (XPT / USD) has a decrease of 0.2% to USD 1.708.06 and the US Dollar Index (DXY) shows a slight increase of 0.1%, placing it at 101.95 points.

The behaviour of gold is closely linked to the trajectory of the yields of American public titles. After having reached a maximum of several decades in the longer-term sections, yields experienced a withdrawal that ended up favouring the holding of assets without own performance, such as precious metals.

Middle East energy supply models inflationary prospects

A central factor in market dynamics over the last few hours is the development of the oil market. According to energy sector research analyses and firms, crude oil shipments from the Middle East managed to recover to approximately four fifths of pre-conflict volumes. This increased flow of supply helps to mitigate concerns about prolonged dissupply in the region.

The stabilization of crude oil prices reduces the pressure on inflationary projections at the global level and, consequently, on monetary policy decisions to be assessed by the United States Federal Reserve (Fed). However, analysts note that operational uncertainty on international maritime routes remains considerable.

In recent days, tension has been reported on tankers in the area of the Strait of Ormuz. In addition, several oil sector executives noted that industry is exhausting temporary measures to manage logistical interruptions, at a time when the armed conflict between the United States and Iran is going through its eighth month.

Expectations on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve

The expectations about the next steps of the US monetary authority have changed the perception of financial actors. Following the increase in debt costs at the September meeting – the first in three years – public interventions by Fed officials continue to rule out the need for an imminent fee increase.

On the derivatives market, the probability assigned by operators to a new upward adjustment during this month fell below 20%, when just a week ago that estimate was close to 40%. The disclosure of the minutes corresponding to the last meeting of the monetary policy committee will make it possible to learn more about the arguments of the members of the agency and about the future orientation of the cost of money.

Despite the technical support factors, gold is listed within a narrow fluctuation range during the month, technically remaining below several of its mobile averages more followed by analysts.

Impact on the region and macroeconomic variables

For Latin America, the evolution of international interest rates and the behaviour of raw materials are direct monitoring variables. The moderation of US debt returns often alleviates pressures on emerging exchange rates and reduces the costs of external financing for countries in the region. In addition, oil price developments have a direct impact on the trade balances of the continent’s oil-importing and exporting countries, determining the trajectory of local inflation and the monetary policy decisions of the central banks of the area.

The attention of investors will be focused on official inflation data, the evolution of soreign returns and the development of geopolitical events on major energy trade routes.